I remain somewhat baffled by the relentless procession of news articles stating the US is in recession, or is at risk of slipping into recession. I remain somewhat baffled because apparently it has escaped most everyone’s notice that the US has been in a recession for the last 7 years, more or less since the worst administration in the country’s history* took office. How can I maintain this position given that GDP has been positive? Because GDP growth has been largely illusionary, fueled by massive run-ups in debt, and has been in no way reflective of real growth. Let me explain the key factors involved.

• The Bush Tax Cuts
  Quick economics lesson - if you want to stimulate the economy, you give money to people that plan on spending it. Everyone knows this, which is why the (incredibly pointless) stimulus package targets the lower and middle classes. The Bush tax cuts did just the opposite, reducing taxes on upper income earners through direct income tax reductions, and of course lower capital gains and dividend tax rates. Some economic theory holds that by lowering taxes on investment gains, one stimulates investment - which would be true if tax rates were so high as to make investing in more risk-prone ventures no more attractive than their “safe” alternatives (aka tax rates + risk premium = safe return rate). This is however nowhere near the case, so net-net all these tax cuts did was free up a pool of money for Wall Street, thus triggering the…..
• Housing Boom
  All the extra money floating around needed a home, and much of it went to, well, homes. The additional cash had the dual (and reinforcing) effect of driving down the cost of credit, and driving up house prices. Inflated housing prices made people feel wealthy, and they took out home equity lines to supplement their income. This cash helped fuel much of the economic expansion of the last seven years, but as it wasn’t invested in anything that builds economic return, any gain from it is at best temporary. Even better, it all has to be paid back. But the housing boom has another dark side, in that it distracted people from the …
• War on Terror!
  During every one of the Bush administration’s years in office, it has run a deficit, largely due to the aforementioned tax cuts and defense spending. Much like the home equity loans above, the government has been stimulating the economy with deficit-spending, which, according to Keynesian economics, is just the sort of thing one does when one is trying to combat a recession. Contrary to popular belief, money for endeavors like the Iraq war does not go into a black hole – it goes directly into the hands of defense contractors, who in turn use it to buy stuff. This is the heart of the “war is good for the economy” argument, a statement which is not inherently wrong, but perhaps a bit misleading. Deficit spending can be good for the economy, but something like the war in Iraq is one of the worst uses of those funds. When one borrows in the present, one tries to invest in something that has a return. Investment in the future was just what Keynes had in mind; deficit spending used to build power plants, roads, schools, and telecommunications lines in the long run strengthens the economy, which allows one to pay back debt through increased tax revenue. Investment in bombs, on the other hand, is the equivalent of your borrowing money and just giving it to Best Buy. It might help the economy a bit, but your shiny new wide-screen TV isn’t going to generate much of a return a year down the road.

And thus we have two policies, and three pillars, which have supported an economy which would otherwise have been characterized as recessionary. Remove the trillion or so dollars a year the housing boom and deficit spending pumped into the economy and economic growth would have been decidedly negative. This is also why so few people have felt any improvement in living conditions or wages.

I believe this situation can be fixed, but massive government funded and or prodded fiscal mismanagement has created a very, very deep hole to climb out of. I’d suggest moving to Australia, but it would mean becoming a victim of our foreign policy.

*”The worst administration”, you ask quizzically. “Yes”, I reply, “No government has before done so much harm, perhaps even irreparable harm, in so short a time. If you don’t believe, me, you should read this.”

I don’t know what’s wrong with you, but I’d like to find out.

In a talk I recently watched given at TED by Aubrey de Grey, he pointed out that to drastically extend human lifespan, we don’t need to figure out how to live to 1000 right now. All we need to do is figure out how to live 10 additional years, and then in the course of those 10 years, figure out how to extend the lifespan 10 years further, ad infinitum. Given the accelerating pace of our understanding of biology, this becomes an increasingly reasonable possibility.

Today I read that Sirtris Pharmaceuticals announced the preliminary results of a short-term human trial of a resveratol derivative (the compound found in red wine which is usually given credit for the drink’s life-lengthening effects). It apparently “significantly reduced blood sugar in 67 diabetic patients as compared with a placebo group.” Which brings up an interesting question. If it is an effective agent for the treatment of diabetes, it’s likely that insurance will cover it for that purpose. If it *also* functions as an anti-aging drug, how many people are going to suddenly develop diabetes?

(Also from TED, and highly recommended, are Dan Gilbert’s Stumbling Upon Happiness talk, and Barry Swartz’s Paradox of Choice talk.)

It’s been my experience that new years is vastly over-hyped. I’m fairly confident this is directly related to having a countdown to . . . nothing . . . absolutely nothing. Every year one hopes for some great epiphany, some declaration of love, something, anything, of meaning, and every year the clock just continues ticking on, taunting us with its twos and threes.

Fortunately, for so many of us, life is banal. We’re well-fed, housed, and clothed. Wars, where they do exist, are minor and lack purpose. Our continued existence is not in question. We enter each successive year not in celebration that we’ve “made it”, that we’ve survived this long, but simply as another mark on the calendar. Tomorrow will be the same as yesterday, which was the same as the day before it.

To compensate, many simply drink a lot - in alcohol there is purpose, in vino sententia. Others jump out of planes, wrestle an alligator, or take swims in piranha infested waters; all in an attempt to recapture a struggle for survival, to momentarily replace banality with adrenaline, to remember what it is to live.

I have a new years resolution, both for me and for you. In 2008, try to discover why we’re alive. Give our lives a purpose, any purpose that feels genuine, so that when 2009 rolls around we won’t wonder why nothing happened, but rather we’ll be grateful for the opportunity to keep what ever it is that happened, happening.

San Francisco has a significant and seemingly intractable homeless problem. Tonight I was thinking, “What could be done with such a group if they could organize?” And then it struck me, Hobo Army! So I typed it into Google, and what do I find…. a freaking Hobo Army.

It would rule. If only they could be combined with tigers.

I have a lot of acquaintances. I have very few friends.

This is not a trivial semantic distinction. While the word “friend” has come to mean anyone with whom one associates but does not actively dislike, I cling to the vestiges of language lost and still call such people “acquaintances.” This seems more appropriate, as they are people with whom I am acquainted, but with whom I share no bond. Should I disappear tomorrow, they would in no way notice, nor would their world be at all bereft. Should they, my world and I would probably feel similarly. “Friend” is an adjective I reserve for people I care for and who might even care for me. Friends are those who I smile when I think of, who I can tell a story about, who are ready to offer help if I’m moving. Friends are rare.

It is fairly common to hear people talk about those in the Bay Area as “friendly”, largely, I suspect, due to the greater openness of its people to outsiders and strangers, and a greater willingness to smile. But friendly does not equal friend. I’ve found that greater openness drags with it greater fluidity; people float in and out of each other’s lives, never sticking around for too long, never bonding, never becoming true friends. We all stay acquaintances, aware of each other’s presence but also largely indifferent to it. Meeting new people has been easy here; making new friends has been far more difficult.

Some of this may be a function of the culture of the technology industry around San Francisco, but I also suspect part of it is that with fewer barriers to cross, with lower thresholds between stranger and acquaintance, the attachments one forms with those who cross such thresholds are by nature less significant.

Everything comes with a tradeoff. The effusive nature of the American middle is joined with nosiness and a belief that one has a right to know what others are doing. The colder nature of the American north comes with a greater sense of personal privacy, and more of a “do whatever you want as long as you don’t bother me” approach.

Perhaps similarly, “friendly” and “friend” don’t mix.

The Guardian (via boingboing) reports that among the many allegations of impropriety and mismanagement (no! shock!) at the Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, was an accusation of witchcraft.

“Current and former SIGIR employees have told investigators that Bowen’s deputy, Ginger Cruz, a self-described wiccan, threatened to put hexes on employees and made inappropriate sexual remarks.
The Post said Cruz denied making comments of a “sexual nature” and noted that she was cleared of wrongdoing by an internal SIGIR investigation.”

Personally, I’m just glad to see other religions getting representation on the faith-based gravy train.

Every few months, my level of hate for certain people or groups builds up to higher than average levels. In an effort to expel this dislike back unto the universe, I present to you my list of things that are currently annoying me.

• People who use the word “apps” as a stubsitute for “appetizer”
  I don’t know why this bothers me so, but it does. It’s probably for the same reason I hate “carbs”, which has far more to do with the people who use the word than the word itself. Maybe those who use it can can find some low carb apps to accompany their appletinis before they go home to watch whatever mentally-challenged yuppies watch these days. Bad yuppies. Bad!
• People who don’t clean up after their dogs
  Having a dog in a city is a lot of responsibility. Such responsibilities include: walking the dog at all hours, feeding the dog regularly, and cleaning up after the dog when it defecates. Please note the last one, as it’s not optional. If the dog evacuates on the dirt by a sidewalk-inlaid tree, this does not mean you don’t have do anything due to the “natural” environment. When I see such a person, or the ones who look around post dog pooping in the hopes of furtively sneaking away, I want to press their heads into the newly besmirched ground. Is that wrong? No. It’s not. It’s the right thing to do.
• Homeless people
  Many have had bad luck, and just need help. But many also do not take said help when offered. I support America being a free country; one should be able to sit where one wants, walk where one wants, and if one doesn’t have a home, that’s certainly no crime. But public lands, including parks and streets, are commons, for everyone’s use, and there are some basic ground rules. Among these is the understanding that commons are not toilets. No one will let you use the bathroom? Sorry, that’s the cost of freedom.
• Whistle-blowing door men
  Whistles may be blown when a cab is approaching. They do not need to be blown at all other times. Please stop it with the damn “whoo, whoo, whoo” every three f#$king seconds. Is there a cab around? No? Then no whistle for you! If you’re still confused, I can send you a flow-chart.
• Non-synchronized traffic lights
  It’s not that difficult. There are wireless data transmitters, and computers, and other newfangled gadgets that can time lights so that traffic flows smoothly. It doesn’t even have to be city-wide, just through high-traffic areas. It can be done, it should be done, and it’s not done. You suck, Gavin Newsom.
• Pan-regional valley girls
  Like, yeah! So this other night Tracy and I were out at this bar, and this guy, who was kind of cute but weird looking, was just staring at us like he wanted to crush us into soylent sorority girl. Yeah, like, I don’t know. It’s probably because of our grating nasally voices and utter vapidity, or something.
• People with vastly unjustified egos
  Such individuals seem to be rampant here in Silicon Valley, which only increases the degree to which I hate them. Oh? You have a lot of money because you sold your stake in your social networking blogging video sharing friending chatting ad network? That’s so great! You must be very proud, and are right to feel so superior. It’s just as if you invented the transistor or produced a new work of literary genius!
• Republicans
  WTF is wrong with you? I’m happy you love Jesus and all, but could you just spare a second from your ever-vigilant Al Qaeda fighting schedules to think about what’s happened to the country? Do you understand that we can’t lower taxes for everyone *and* pay for all the services you want? Are you bothered by the ever-widening income disparity? Does it strike you as logical that religion and government should not be mixed? No? Please exercise the second amendment then, and shoot off your voting finger.

Ah. That’s better. Vitriol dispensed with. I love you all!

Example - One video tapes ones friend being bitten in the crotch by the puppy they were trying to pet. One would then say, “Oh man, that’s totally YouTube worthy” and would subsequently post the video to YouTube, for all to enjoy.

The phrase is also usable in highly inappropriate times, providing video is involved. Such as the following exchange:
“I’m going to get a colonoscopy tomorrow.”
“Dude! That’s totally YouTube worthy. You could start the Ben’s Colon Show!”
“Dude. Wrong.”

Justice Gibson delivers the ruling of the court:

The county has asserted that Mr. Joel did willingly and knowingly set fire to the property at 112 Old Oak Way, Ridgewood, New Jersey, an incident hereafter referred to as “the fire”. The defendent has claimed that he and his compatriots did not start the fire, but rather were involved in fire-fighting activities at the time of his arrest.

Despite an impassioned plea by Mr. Joel, after 18 years of listening to his refutation the court is unable to find any evidence supporting his claims. Though the defendant listed an impressive array of witnesses, attempts to contact the vast majority would be futile, as they are currently deceased. All of the remaining living individuals mentioned: Doris Day, Queen Elizabeth II, Brigitte Bardot, Fidel Castro, Chubby Checker, Bob Dylan, John Glenn, Sally Ride, and Bernhard Goetz, have denied any involvement in the fire, and all except Mr. Castro have plausible and confirmed alibis. Further, the court can find no means to connect the events listed with the fire, nor does it believe outrage over the listed events suitable justification for initiating a conflagration.

Mr. Joel, electing to represent himself, said to the court, “J.F.K. blown away, what else do I have to say?” While the death of President Kennedy was tragic and unfortunate, it occurred 26 years prior to the fire, and hardly seems relevant to the issue at hand.

Given the lack of evidence to the country, the court rules for the prosecution. Sentencing to be determined at a hearing on a later date.